Render (RENDER)

Render, in simple terms:

Render is essentially an open marketplace for GPU (Graphics Processing Unit) power.

It connects individuals or companies needing graphics rendering services with those who have idle computer processing power to offer.

How it works:

• Service Users: These are individuals or businesses such as animation studios, filmmakers, or architects who need powerful computing resources to render high-quality images or animations. Service users can rent the GPU power of "service providers".
• Service Providers: These are individuals or data centres with high-performance GPUs who can provide their unused processing power to "service users" for a fee.
• Compensation: RENDER tokens are used as currency on the platform, facilitating the exchange of services and compensation.

This system democratizes access to high-quality rendering services, making them more affordable and accessible to a broader audience.

What Problem is Render Solving?

Render Network is addressing two problems:

1. High costs of intensive rendering tasks
2. Limited access to GPU resources

Traditional centralized GPU services often lead to resource competition, making them expensive and unavailable.

For example, real estate developers, and architects face difficulties in presenting multiple design options due to these costs, impacting their creativity and limiting their options.

Render wants to turn this around:

Instead of creators competing for GPU supply, they want to make the GPU suppliers compete for creators.

How Render Solves the Problems

According to their website, their solution has features like:

Paraphrased and summarized, they state in the whitepaper that:

They also describe the pricing models in the whitepaper, which looks like this:

Render Network offers a Multi-Tier Pricing (MTP) system to adjust prices for speed, security, and "operator reputation":

• Tier 1 - Trusted: Most expensive, highest priority, and access to high VRAM GPUs for complex renderings. Only "trusted" GPU suppliers can execute these jobs.
• Tier 2 - Priority: Priced up to 75% cheaper than Tier 1, providing access to high-performance GPU nodes.
• Tier 3 - Economy: Offers the highest discount between 82% - 94% cheaper than Tier 1, but with slower processing times and potentially less advanced GPUs.

So there's a "base price" decided by supply/demand, and discount tiers for those with limited budgets or lower quality/speed needs.

The Tier 3 price is estimated to be roughly 80 times cheaper than the general cloud computing cost of using companies like AWS Deadline Cloud and Chaos Cloud.

Partnerships & Adoption:

Render is progressing in terms of both adoption and partnerships.

Let's begin with adoption:

• Increase in Frames Rendered: In the third quarter of 2023, the Render Network processed 2.36 million frames. In Q4, frames processed increased by roughly 30% up to 3 million​.
• Increase in complexity: The complexity of the frames increased a lot, bringing in more revenue to GPU suppliers, as shown in the RENDER payments, which rose by 50% from 550K in Q3 to 1.1M in Q4.

Additionally, 2023 saw a 50% increase in frames rendered from 2022:

So, Render is processing more frames, and the complexity of the frames is increasing - all indicators of increased adoption.

• High-profile projects: Raoul Marks used Render Network to create the opening title sequences for the fourth season of "Westworld".
  Render Network has also supported large-scale projection mapping projects, such as for the Las Vegas Sphere.

High-profile projects are aware of Render Network, which indicates adoption and high competence.

Here are a couple of the partnerships I managed to find:

• Apple: Render Network's technology, Octane X, is available on Mac computers and iPads, integrating Render’s capabilities directly into Apple’s devices, expanding its accessibility and functionality for Apple users.

Whether or not this process involves the RENDER token is not clear to me. It seems that Octane X (the rendering tech owned by OTOY, the company behind Render Network) might offload some of the tasks to the Render Network, which in turn uses RENDER tokens. Therefore, this partnership might cause Apple users to indirectly use RENDER tokens, acting as a positive force on the price.

• io.net: A partnership aimed at expanding Render's Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Network for AI, which involves incorporating new GPU operators into the Render ecosystem, and enhancing computational resources for AI and machine learning tasks.

This positions Render for the current AI and machine learning boom which is demanding ever more GPU. Although these partnerships don't directly increase the usage of RENDER, they add compelling use cases for those in need of more complex computation/rendering like AI and machine learning projects.

Is Render Really Decentralized?

Render is somewhat centralized compared to other decentralized crypto projects due to several key aspects:

1. Governance: It is overseen by the company OTOY, which manages decision-making and network management. Unlike fully decentralized projects where governance is often spread among all stakers, miners, or managed via a DAO, Render's key decisions are influenced by a single company.
2. Network Control: While Render leverages decentralized GPU resources, the control over these resources, including task allocation and pricing, is centrally managed by OTOY.
3. Service Dependency: Certain operational aspects like token distribution and transaction processing rely on centralized services.

In contrast, fully decentralized projects, like Akash Network, involve community-driven governance and lack a central authority controlling network operations.

The centralized nature of Render offers quicker decision-making and easier management but comes with potential risks related to security and control.

For a more decentralized alternative, check out Akash Network.

$20B Market Cap in 2025?

As mentioned earlier, Render saw impressive growth in Q4 of 2023, reaching a usage worth 1.1M RENDER.

In Q4 RENDER opened at $1.5 and closed at $4.5, giving us an average price of $3.

The "revenue" of Render in Q4 can therefore be estimated at $3.3 million ($3 x 1.1M RENDER)

Multiply that by four quarters and the annualized revenue is about $13 million.

The market cap (MC) of Render at the start of 2024 was roughly $2B, putting the MC 153X the yearly revenue.

Compared to competitors like Akash Network, which is valued at 1,000X the revenue, a MC of 153X the yearly revenue is low. 

In a mania phase, a valuation of 500X the annual revenue is realistic.

This means a 5X in MC from $2B to $10B.

Furthermore, the demand for rendering services is estimated to grow 25% annually.

Compounding 2024 and 2025, this equals 1.25 * 1.25 = 1.5625 = 56.25% growth.

Assuming Render outperforms competition, a 2X in rendering jobs is well within the realm of possibilities.

So, if the revenue goes 2X due to increased demand for rendering services, and the MC / Revenue goes 5X, the MC of Render will 10X, reaching $20B.

Let's figure out what the price of RENDER will be at an MC of $20B to calculate the potential ROI of investing.

Potential ROI of Buying RENDER:

The math is simple:

Price = MC / Circulating Supply.

Therefore, all we need to figure out is the inflation of RENDER over the next couple of years to calculate the supply, and then, the price.

Supply mechanics: RENDER utilizes a "burn-and-mint equilibrium" mechanism, burning tokens when demand is high and minting new tokens during lower demand periods to stabilize prices and supply.

This is kind of what central banks try to do; stimulate the economy with fresh cash in times of low demand and tighten policy when times are good.

Let's get more specific: When RENDER is used to pay for rendering services, a portion of the payment is burned.

Basically, more demand for Render's services = more RENDER token burns.
​
​This is great, as both the demand and the burn mechanism are a positive force on the price of RENDER.

On the other hand, when demand is low, new tokens are minted. This is a negative force on the price (think inflation), but it stimulates the network with fresh cash, incentivizing service providers and lowering the price of rendering.

The goal of this mechanism is an equilibrium in terms of price and supply (no sharp inflation/deflation). It reminds me of rebasing projects, and I find it interesting.

Either way, as the adoption increase burns tokens, significant inflation is not a problem in a bull market.

Let's assume the circulating supply remains constant.

Given our assumptions of a $20B MC, the price will reach:

$20B / 390M = $51.

I consider reaching $50 realistic. RENDER would still be small compared to the BTC, ETH, and SOL: