Brett (BRETT)

Brett, in simple terms

Brett is a decentralized memecoin launched in February 2024. 

It is built on Based, an L2-chain developed by Coinbase and built on top of Ethereum.

As a memecoin, Brett has no use case, you can’t do anything with it.

Its value then, is almost completely a function of hype and "community".

If many people want BRETT, the price increases. If few people want BRETT, it decreases.

Still, there are some differences between memecoins.

MAGA for example is an ethical memecoin due to its fees which automatically donates money to good causes.

DOG was unique because it was launched in a way that eliminated the possibility of insider trading and price manipulation.

So, the question is, what is the potential of Brett?

Community

As said earlier, what is most important for a memecoin to succeed are socials or a strong interest in it.

Let's have a look at the number of holders of Brett compared to the largest memecoins:

At 689,015 holders, Brett has more than Pepe and Dogwifhat, but lags behind the two largest memecoins (MC).

If we take the total market cap of Brett and divide it by the total market cap of everything built on Base (the L2 BRETT lives on), we get an idea of how big the meme is compared to the Base ecosystem.

These are the top tokens on Base by market cap: 

The total market cap of Base is $39B and of Brett is $1.132B. 

In other words, Brett constitutes (1.132/39) x 100 = 2,9% of the Base ecosystem.

If we assume that Brett could keep this percentage, we can calculate its market cap in a potential bull run. 

Let's say Base grows to the size of one of its competitors, for example, Solana which has an MC at $217B, and Brett keeps its relative size.

In this scenario, its MC would be: $217B x 0.024 = $6.3B

Given the max supply of 10B tokens, the price in the scenario would be: $6.3B / 10B = $0.63

Is Brett undervalued?

Another metric we can use to make a prediction is the relation between market cap and number of holders.

The number tells us something about whether a project is over- or under-valued. 

A higher number means that the token is higher priced.

Let’s look at the MC / holders for some of the largest memecoins: 

 

 

Pepe is the highest-priced memecoin on the list, and Brett is the lowest.

This is a good thing.

It tells us that Brett has a lot of room to grow compared to the others.

Let's say Brett keeps its number of holders, but that the ratio between holders and market cap changes to the level of the other coins: 

Its market cap would range from $1.4B to $8.1B, if it reaches the same MC / Holders ratio as the other memecoins. 

This corresponds to a price ranging from $0.14 to $0.81.

Listing on Coinbase

The last scenario I'll entertain is if Brett gets listed on Coinbase. 

Right now, Brett is not listed on Binance or Coinbase and this gives us a potential arbitrage since coins like this usually rally when they are listed on those two exchanges.

Brett being on Base, I think Coinbase is likely to list it at some point.

If Coinbase lists Brett, it is likely to reach the top 30 (if not 20), which at the current market cap is roughly 2x (or 4x if top 20).

If the crypto market in general goes 4x from there, that puts Brett at 2x * 4x = 8x the current market cap.

If Brett reaches the top 20, we're looking at a 16x (given a general 4x of the crypto market).

If we take the BTC dominance into account, things get even crazier:

The BTC dominance tells us how much of the total crypto market lies in Bitcoin vs in altcoins.

For example, if the BTC dominance is at 60%, it means that 60% of the value in the crypto market is in Bitcoin and that 40% of the value is in altcoins.

Currently, the BTC dominance is 57.5%.

If it decreases to 30% (which is normal in late bull markets), the altcoin dominance will grow from 42.5% to 70%, which is a 50% increase, roughly speaking.

So, given a drop in BTC dominance from 57.5% to 30%, the potential ROI of Brett must be multiplied by 1.5:

Top 30 ROI: 2x * 4x * 1.5x = 12x

Top 20: ROI: 4x * 4x * 1.5x = 24x.

Again, this assumes that Brett is listed on Coinbase and Binance.